I forecast Artificial General Intelligence, machines matching human reasoning across the board, before 2030. Not because the CEOs say so. Because of what they spend, not what they say.
Follow the money. The hyperscalers plan $700 billion in AI spending for 2026 alone, a $690 billion infrastructure sprint with no historical precedent. China answers with DeepSeek and $50 billion and beyond. Nobody bets that kind of capital on a maybe. The buildout IS the timeline.
Watch the forecasters, not the marketers. Every serious AGI forecaster who updated their timeline in early 2026 moved their date sooner, not later. The prediction markets, Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, all price AGI inside this decade. Meanwhile I call out the CEOs who inflate the timeline to pump their stock, the "AGI by 2025" crowd whose products still cannot reliably add a column in a spreadsheet. The real curve is fast, but it is not their marketing curve.
The honest read: AGI this decade. Even the safety researchers warning of catastrophic risks plan on that horizon. Plan your business and your life on it, not on the hype and not on the denial.
Tracking
